China Falls Behind on Olympic Promises
Despite vows, not much change on air quality, political freedom
China warns of 'urgent problems' facing Three Gorges dam
Risk of geological disaster, state cabinet admits, as project is linked to soil erosion, quakes, drought and social upheaval
Programs to Control Air Pollution and Acid Rain
Tianjin 2010 - (TV Debate) Rethinking China's Competitive Edge
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
China
China, the fourth largest country, is the home to the largest population in the world. With a climate ranging from tropical in the south to subarctic in the north, the west with vast deserts and the east with luscious green mountains and valleys, the people of the nation are as varied as the terrain. Around 55 different ethnic minority groups compose nearly 7% of the total population (D). Now the world's fastest-growing economy is undergoing what some have described as a second industrial revolution. Possessing 1/5th of the world’s population, China’s economic growth has caught the attention of the western world. A re-emerging super power, second only to the U.S., China also faces an imbalance in regional economic growth that has led to a tremendous level of economic inequality (A). Nevertheless, the government has worked hard to develop many market–orientated reforms in order to strengthen the overall infrastructure of the economy and to bridge the gap between urban and rural income distribution.
Demographic Profile
China is the most populated country in the world with the most recent numbers charting 1.3 billion citizens in 2010. With a natural rate of increase of 0.5 percent, it is projected that the numbers will grow to reach 1.4 billion by the year 2050. China has an extremely large population, but due partly to the One-Child Policy implemented in 1979, the fertility rate is only 1.5, and there are only about 12 births per 1,000 women. Currently China’s fertility rate, birthrate, and mortality rate are all level with world’s more developed countries. However, infant mortality rates are slightly high in China, at 21 per 1,000 women, which was above the regional average of East Asian nations, which was at 20 in 2010. The number of infant moralities for 2011 is estimated to fall to 16 in China, but it is anticipated that more deaths will occur in female infants than male (K).
Urban areas hold 47 p
ercent of China's population with an annual urbanization rate of change of 2.3 percent. 98 percent of the urban population has improved drinking water and 58 percent has improved sanitary facility. However due to the great disparity between urban and rural areas, 48 percent of the rural population has unimproved sanitation facilities and 18 percent has unimproved drinking water (K). China’s economy is 38.1 percent agricultural, 27.8 percent industrial, and 34.1 percent national services. In 2010 China’s gross domestic production experienced a real growth rate of 10.3 percent, placing it at 6th highest annual GDP growth in the world for that year (K).
China, just like most of the world, is facing a rising epidemic of AIDS and HIV. In 1987, after 2 Chinese citizens had passed away due to AIDS related illness, China joined the global fight against AIDS. From the strength of which the Chinese government began its fight against AIDS and HIV, today the percentage of the population with AIDS and HIV between the ages of 15 and 49 are remarkably low. Only 0.1 percent of males and less than 0.1 percent of female have HIV or AIDS (M).
Urban areas hold 47 p
ercent of China's population with an annual urbanization rate of change of 2.3 percent. 98 percent of the urban population has improved drinking water and 58 percent has improved sanitary facility. However due to the great disparity between urban and rural areas, 48 percent of the rural population has unimproved sanitation facilities and 18 percent has unimproved drinking water (K). China’s economy is 38.1 percent agricultural, 27.8 percent industrial, and 34.1 percent national services. In 2010 China’s gross domestic production experienced a real growth rate of 10.3 percent, placing it at 6th highest annual GDP growth in the world for that year (K).China, just like most of the world, is facing a rising epidemic of AIDS and HIV. In 1987, after 2 Chinese citizens had passed away due to AIDS related illness, China joined the global fight against AIDS. From the strength of which the Chinese government began its fight against AIDS and HIV, today the percentage of the population with AIDS and HIV between the ages of 15 and 49 are remarkably low. Only 0.1 percent of males and less than 0.1 percent of female have HIV or AIDS (M).
Current Problems
1. Environment and Resource Degradation
China has been extremely successful in quickly developing its industrial ventures. As the country becomes more and more industrialized, and the population transitions further into a more material oriented society like other developed countries, there becomes an increased demand for numerous products and a raise in resource consumption per person. Additionally, with rapid growth, there also has been an increasing demand for energy use to run production. Most of this energy is from coal, oil and other natural resources. China was the 5th largest producer of oil at about 3.991 million bbl/day of which they consumed 8.2 million bbl/day and imported about 4.393 million bbl/day. In 2009 China was the 3rd largest consumer of oil in the world and the 4th country to import the most oil (K).
As would be expected, the large consumption of natural resources, and the increased acquisition of land for industrialization and urbanization has had very serious consequences on the environment. Currently, only about 14 percent of China’s 9,596,961 sq. km of land is arable. So nearly 84 percent cannot sustain crops or is industrialized (K). Additionally the unprecedented amounts of greenhouse gasses released into the atmosphere has not only become a concern for the Chinese government, but has also caught international attention.
The U.S. Department of State reported “China surpassed the United States as the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in 2007” (C.) and the World Health Organization wrote in their report on air quality in 272 cities worldwide that “7 of the world's 10 most polluted cities were in China. According to China's own evaluation, 2/3 of the 338 cities for which air-quality data are available are considered polluted and 2/3 of them moderately or severely so” (C.). Regrettably, the issue of air pollution is of international interest and concern, as the world strengthens their effort to reduce the amount of greenhouse gasses released in the atmosphere.
2. Rapidly Aging Population
In 1979, the Chinese government formulated a new policy in wake of the economic reforms in effort to slow population growth. Perhaps it was not foreseen that although such a drastic measure would help to greatly boost economic progress, would also lead to a growing population of elderly with insufficient support from a highly imbalanced younger and working age population and an under developed government support system. Furthermore, perhaps no one could have predicted how large of a role traditional Chinese views on the importance of male children would lead to an increase in female infant mortality rates, contributing to a problematic imbalance of men to women ratio in future generations.
Today, China is experiencing a rapidly aging population which succeeds the economic carrying capacity not due to development, like other first world nations, but due partly to the 1980 One-Child Policy, that is both a fantastic show of the power of the government, but also a potentially fatally flawed piece of legislature that could potentially spell economic and social disaster for the nation.
Under the One-Child Policy, families are allowed to have 1 child each or perhaps 2 children with 3 years in between (N). But was this policy really necessary? Before the One-Child Policy, fertility rates had already drastically dropped due largely in part by predating campaigns from the government to lower fertility rates. In fact during this pre-policy time, fertility rates had declined more than 50 percent from 5.8 to 2.7 in 1979 (O).
The drastic drop in fertility has also had an immediate affect on the population’s economy. Between 1990 and 2008, 60 percent of elementary schools were closed down because the number of new students dropped from 25.3 million to 16.7 million.
3. Economic Disparity
Since the Chinese government began its series of economic reforms that were heavily focused on urbanization and industry in 1978, there has become an ever-widening income disparity between those living in rural and urban areas. In 2007 the income of the top 10 percent of the richest in China were 23 times that of the bottom 10 percent. Part of the disparity between rural and urban populations may be because the incomes of farmers are increasing at a slower rate than for urban residents (C).
4. Media Censorship
China’s constitution gives its citizens the freedom of speech and press, but there are media regulatory laws that use ambiguous language that give “authorities use to claim stories endanger the country by sharing state secrets” (W). There are several different censoring agencies. The main monitoring agency is the Communist Party’s Central Propaganda Department that coordinates with General Administration of Press and Publications and State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television. The main functions of the censoring agencies are to prevent media that would challenge the government’s political authority and to make sure media content promotes the party’s doctrine (W).
Even with the tight control of the media by the government, some citizens are able to bypass news censorship. Mainly thought the use of blogs and online journals. Journalists face a number of different punishments if they do not censor themselves. A few tactics the government uses include dismissal and demoted, they can be sued for libel, fined or even jailed.
5. Government Corruption
China’s government is facing a hug problem with corrupt officials who will accept bribes and other forms of incentives. In a 2008 case, a powerful party boss in Shanghai was jailed for 18 years for assisting in a pension fund scandal (X). Other cases of government corruption include the embezzlement of extremely large sums of money and tampering with the income and investment reports. Recently the government has began a crackdown to reduce corruption, but some say that because corruption is so ingrained in the system and because of the role it has played in Chinese politics from the very beginning, it will be very difficult to eliminate (W).
China has been extremely successful in quickly developing its industrial ventures. As the country becomes more and more industrialized, and the population transitions further into a more material oriented society like other developed countries, there becomes an increased demand for numerous products and a raise in resource consumption per person. Additionally, with rapid growth, there also has been an increasing demand for energy use to run production. Most of this energy is from coal, oil and other natural resources. China was the 5th largest producer of oil at about 3.991 million bbl/day of which they consumed 8.2 million bbl/day and imported about 4.393 million bbl/day. In 2009 China was the 3rd largest consumer of oil in the world and the 4th country to import the most oil (K).
As would be expected, the large consumption of natural resources, and the increased acquisition of land for industrialization and urbanization has had very serious consequences on the environment. Currently, only about 14 percent of China’s 9,596,961 sq. km of land is arable. So nearly 84 percent cannot sustain crops or is industrialized (K). Additionally the unprecedented amounts of greenhouse gasses released into the atmosphere has not only become a concern for the Chinese government, but has also caught international attention.
The U.S. Department of State reported “China surpassed the United States as the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in 2007” (C.) and the World Health Organization wrote in their report on air quality in 272 cities worldwide that “7 of the world's 10 most polluted cities were in China. According to China's own evaluation, 2/3 of the 338 cities for which air-quality data are available are considered polluted and 2/3 of them moderately or severely so” (C.). Regrettably, the issue of air pollution is of international interest and concern, as the world strengthens their effort to reduce the amount of greenhouse gasses released in the atmosphere.
2. Rapidly Aging Population
In 1979, the Chinese government formulated a new policy in wake of the economic reforms in effort to slow population growth. Perhaps it was not foreseen that although such a drastic measure would help to greatly boost economic progress, would also lead to a growing population of elderly with insufficient support from a highly imbalanced younger and working age population and an under developed government support system. Furthermore, perhaps no one could have predicted how large of a role traditional Chinese views on the importance of male children would lead to an increase in female infant mortality rates, contributing to a problematic imbalance of men to women ratio in future generations.
Today, China is experiencing a rapidly aging population which succeeds the economic carrying capacity not due to development, like other first world nations, but due partly to the 1980 One-Child Policy, that is both a fantastic show of the power of the government, but also a potentially fatally flawed piece of legislature that could potentially spell economic and social disaster for the nation.
Under the One-Child Policy, families are allowed to have 1 child each or perhaps 2 children with 3 years in between (N). But was this policy really necessary? Before the One-Child Policy, fertility rates had already drastically dropped due largely in part by predating campaigns from the government to lower fertility rates. In fact during this pre-policy time, fertility rates had declined more than 50 percent from 5.8 to 2.7 in 1979 (O).
The drastic drop in fertility has also had an immediate affect on the population’s economy. Between 1990 and 2008, 60 percent of elementary schools were closed down because the number of new students dropped from 25.3 million to 16.7 million.
3. Economic Disparity
Since the Chinese government began its series of economic reforms that were heavily focused on urbanization and industry in 1978, there has become an ever-widening income disparity between those living in rural and urban areas. In 2007 the income of the top 10 percent of the richest in China were 23 times that of the bottom 10 percent. Part of the disparity between rural and urban populations may be because the incomes of farmers are increasing at a slower rate than for urban residents (C).
4. Media Censorship
China’s constitution gives its citizens the freedom of speech and press, but there are media regulatory laws that use ambiguous language that give “authorities use to claim stories endanger the country by sharing state secrets” (W). There are several different censoring agencies. The main monitoring agency is the Communist Party’s Central Propaganda Department that coordinates with General Administration of Press and Publications and State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television. The main functions of the censoring agencies are to prevent media that would challenge the government’s political authority and to make sure media content promotes the party’s doctrine (W).
Even with the tight control of the media by the government, some citizens are able to bypass news censorship. Mainly thought the use of blogs and online journals. Journalists face a number of different punishments if they do not censor themselves. A few tactics the government uses include dismissal and demoted, they can be sued for libel, fined or even jailed.
5. Government Corruption
China’s government is facing a hug problem with corrupt officials who will accept bribes and other forms of incentives. In a 2008 case, a powerful party boss in Shanghai was jailed for 18 years for assisting in a pension fund scandal (X). Other cases of government corruption include the embezzlement of extremely large sums of money and tampering with the income and investment reports. Recently the government has began a crackdown to reduce corruption, but some say that because corruption is so ingrained in the system and because of the role it has played in Chinese politics from the very beginning, it will be very difficult to eliminate (W).
Top Issues in 2050
The most important issue facing China in the year 2050 that can contribute to many other problems if not resolved is its rapidly aging population due to the One-Child Policy. If not resolved, China could face economy instability and potential social unrest. What started out a brilliant maneuver to increase economic growth and social stability has turned to unfavorable. China’s government in the process of economic reform determined that its booming population desperately needed containment. In 
2010, China’s fertility rate was at an all time low of 1.5. Of the total population, 8 percent was of age 65 and older. It is projected that in 2050 that 8 percent will increase to nearly 30 percent of the population (U). With this great rise in the elderly population, China will need to decide how to handle the burden of rising old age dependency, an ever aging workforce, and declining savings and investment rates (S).
China has one of the highest savings rates, but a family’s personal savings are not used for their old age needs. Rather their funds are invested in their children who intern are to provide for their elderly parents (Q). Concerning government support, there are currently only enough facilities like nursing homes accommodate only about 1.5 percent of the aging population (U). The financial burden of supplying extra facilities and even improving social security and pension systems is currently unaffordable.
As the working age population grows older, there will become a shortage in labor force. This could bring a drop in China’s economic prosperity. There will be a transformation in the economy and the very social structure itself. Traditionally, Chinese families were relatively large and almost every family would have at least one son. It was the son that was relied upon as the elderly parents’ first line of support. After the One-Child Policy, this social structure began to break down as the chances of having a male child greatly decreased. Furthermore through this new structure, the government has created a generation with no brothers or sisters who’s children, if the current family restrictions are allowed to continue, will live in a society with no brothers, sisters, or aunts in uncles. What is worse is that in the past Chinese families relied heavily on the family networks and find jobs and to run social networking (V).
Another growing problem concerns the growing disproportion between males and females. A side effect of China’s One-Child Policy and the desire for male children is the increase in female infant moralities. Some parents resort to sex selective abortion in order to have a child of the desired sex. “Baby girls are also victims of infanticide, abandonment, or deliberate neglect” (V). As a result, in the future China will experience a great gender imbalance. In truth, it is projected that there will be over 30 million more Chinese men of marriageable age than women in the near future.
2010, China’s fertility rate was at an all time low of 1.5. Of the total population, 8 percent was of age 65 and older. It is projected that in 2050 that 8 percent will increase to nearly 30 percent of the population (U). With this great rise in the elderly population, China will need to decide how to handle the burden of rising old age dependency, an ever aging workforce, and declining savings and investment rates (S).China has one of the highest savings rates, but a family’s personal savings are not used for their old age needs. Rather their funds are invested in their children who intern are to provide for their elderly parents (Q). Concerning government support, there are currently only enough facilities like nursing homes accommodate only about 1.5 percent of the aging population (U). The financial burden of supplying extra facilities and even improving social security and pension systems is currently unaffordable.
As the working age population grows older, there will become a shortage in labor force. This could bring a drop in China’s economic prosperity. There will be a transformation in the economy and the very social structure itself. Traditionally, Chinese families were relatively large and almost every family would have at least one son. It was the son that was relied upon as the elderly parents’ first line of support. After the One-Child Policy, this social structure began to break down as the chances of having a male child greatly decreased. Furthermore through this new structure, the government has created a generation with no brothers or sisters who’s children, if the current family restrictions are allowed to continue, will live in a society with no brothers, sisters, or aunts in uncles. What is worse is that in the past Chinese families relied heavily on the family networks and find jobs and to run social networking (V).
Another growing problem concerns the growing disproportion between males and females. A side effect of China’s One-Child Policy and the desire for male children is the increase in female infant moralities. Some parents resort to sex selective abortion in order to have a child of the desired sex. “Baby girls are also victims of infanticide, abandonment, or deliberate neglect” (V). As a result, in the future China will experience a great gender imbalance. In truth, it is projected that there will be over 30 million more Chinese men of marriageable age than women in the near future.
Reference
(A).
“China.”United Nations Development Programme, 2010. <http://www.undp.org.cn/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&catid=32&sid=6>.
(C).
“Background Notes: China.” Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs. US
Department of State. 5 August. 2010.
(D).
“A Country Study: China.” The Library of Congress >> Researchers. 22 March. <http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/cntoc.html#top>.
(K).
“East & Southeast Asia – China.” Central Intelligence Agency: The World
Factbook. 26 May. 20011. <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html>.
(M).
“World Population Data Sheet 2010.” Population Reference Bureau. 2010.
(N).
Goodstadt, Leo F. “China’s One-Child Family: Policy and Public Response.”
Population and Development Review. Vol. 8 No 1. (March, 1982): 37-58.
(O).
Wang, Feng. “Can China Afford One Child Policy?” East-West Center. No.77.
(March 2005): 1-12.
(Q).
Mason, Andrew. “Economics of aging population.” China Daily USA. China
Daily, 6 June. 2011. <http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2011-06/01/content_12621284.htm>.
(S).
Jackson, Richard. “Can an Aging China Be a Rising China?” The China Business
Review Online. US-China Business Council, 2011.<http://www.chinabusinessreview.com/public/1104/jackson.html>.
(U).
Bolin, He. “Aging population a challenge.” China Daily. China Daily, 19 March.
2011. <http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2011-05/19/content_12542054.htm>.
(V).
Eberstadt, Nicholas, “China’s Future and Its One-Child Policy.” American
Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. World Economic Forum, (19 September. 2007): 1-3.
(W).
Bennett, Isabella. “Media Censorship in China.” Council on Foreign Relations.
Council on Foreign Relations Inc., 7 March. 2011. <http://www.cfr.org/china/media-censorship-china/p11515>.
(X).
“China corruption problem ‘still very serious’ – report.” BBC News: Asia-Pacific.
BBC. 19 Dec. 2010. <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12088147>.
“China.”United Nations Development Programme, 2010. <http://www.undp.org.cn/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&catid=32&sid=6>.
(C).
“Background Notes: China.” Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs. US
Department of State. 5 August. 2010.
(D).
“A Country Study: China.” The Library of Congress >> Researchers. 22 March. <http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/cntoc.html#top>.
(K).
“East & Southeast Asia – China.” Central Intelligence Agency: The World
Factbook. 26 May. 20011. <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html>.
(M).
“World Population Data Sheet 2010.” Population Reference Bureau. 2010.
(N).
Goodstadt, Leo F. “China’s One-Child Family: Policy and Public Response.”
Population and Development Review. Vol. 8 No 1. (March, 1982): 37-58.
(O).
Wang, Feng. “Can China Afford One Child Policy?” East-West Center. No.77.
(March 2005): 1-12.
(Q).
Mason, Andrew. “Economics of aging population.” China Daily USA. China
Daily, 6 June. 2011. <http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2011-06/01/content_12621284.htm>.
(S).
Jackson, Richard. “Can an Aging China Be a Rising China?” The China Business
Review Online. US-China Business Council, 2011.<http://www.chinabusinessreview.com/public/1104/jackson.html>.
(U).
Bolin, He. “Aging population a challenge.” China Daily. China Daily, 19 March.
2011. <http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2011-05/19/content_12542054.htm>.
(V).
Eberstadt, Nicholas, “China’s Future and Its One-Child Policy.” American
Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. World Economic Forum, (19 September. 2007): 1-3.
(W).
Bennett, Isabella. “Media Censorship in China.” Council on Foreign Relations.
Council on Foreign Relations Inc., 7 March. 2011. <http://www.cfr.org/china/media-censorship-china/p11515>.
(X).
“China corruption problem ‘still very serious’ – report.” BBC News: Asia-Pacific.
BBC. 19 Dec. 2010. <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12088147>.
Progress in Terms of UN’s Millennium Development Goals
Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
• Reduce by half the proportion of people living on less than a dollar a day
• Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people
• Reduce by half the proportion of people who suffer from hunger
The number of people living in poverty in rural areas has been reduced from 85 million in 1990 to 35.97 million at the end of 2009. Target of halving the proportion of people living in extreme poverty has been met.
Achieve universal primary education
• Ensure that all boys and girls complete a full course of primary schooling
China has raised the net primary school enrollment rate from 97.8% in 1990 to 99.4% in 2009. The gross enrollment rate for junior high school has been raised from 66.7% in 1990 to 99% in 2009.
Promote gender equality and empower women
• Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education preferably by 2005, and at all levels by 2015
With the retention rates for boys and girls in primary school education standing at 99.4percent and 99.3percent respectively, gender disparities appear to have been eliminated. Women hold 21.3 % of the seats in the National People’s Congress in 2008.
Reduce child mortality
• Reduce by two thirds the mortality rate among children under five
Since 1990s, reported infant mortality rate dropped from 50.2% in 1991 to 13.8% in 2009 while mortality rate of children under-five dropped from 61%in 1991 to 17.2% in 2004.
Improve maternal health
• Reduce by three quarters the maternal mortality ratio
• Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health
Maternal mortality ratio has dropped from 80 per 100,000 live births in 1991 to 31.9 per 100,000 live births in 2009 but these national figures mask important disparities between eastern developed provinces and western poorer provinces of China.
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
• Halt and begin to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS
• Achieve, by 2010, universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS for all those who need it
• Halt and begin to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases
If the epidemic continues to expand, the rate is slowing. In late 2009, China reported that the number of estimated HIV cases has risen to 740,000. Prevalence among the total population as a whole was 0.057percent
Ensure environmental sustainability
• Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs; reverse loss of environmental resources
• Reduce biodiversity loss, achieving, by 2010, a significant reduction in the rate of loss
• Reduce by half the pro-portion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water
• Achieve significant improvement in lives of at least 100 million slum-dwellers by 2020
Land covered by forest has increased from 16.55% in 1998 to 20.36% in 2008. Over 200,000 water supply projects have been launched to provide access to safe drinking water for 220 million rural residents. This means that this MDG target on safe drinking water has been achieved six years ahead of schedule.
Develop a global partnership for development
• Develop further an open trading and financial system that is rule-based, predictable and non-discriminatory. Includes a commitment to good governance, development and poverty reduction nationally and internationally
• Address the least developed countries’ special needs. This includes tariff and quota-free access for their exports; enhanced debt relief for heavily indebted poor countries; cancellation of official bilateral debt; and more generous official development assistance for countries committed to poverty reduction
• Address the special needs of landlocked and small island developing States
• Deal comprehensively with developing countries’ debt problems through national and international measures to make debt sustainable in the long term
• In cooperation with the developing countries, develop decent and productive work for youth
In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable essential drugs in developing countries
• In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies especially information and communications technologies
Since 2000, China has carried out over 1,000 projects in more than 120 countries within the South-South cooperation framework. China has forgiven 380 interest-free loans due at the end of 2006 owed by 50 of the least-developed countries that have diplomatic relations with China and other poor countries that carry heavy debts. Between 1998 and 2010, the number of internet users in China has risen from 2.1 million to 420 million.
(All information provided by United Nations Development Programme: China website)
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